Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Is This What Peace Looks Like?

Last week, I explained to my professor, Steve Coll, that I signed up for his 'Armies and Spies' reporting class because the army is a huge part of public life in Uganda. At that point, I was thinking of oddities like: the UPDF runs agricultural extension, the Miss Uganda beauty contest and as of last week, spraying urban pests and rodents! Plus, that, for 15 years now, the police has been headed by active army generals. 

Saying out loud that "the army is a huge part of public life",  got me wondering what our actual lives then look like, seen through the barrel of a gun.  So I went to ACLED, a service which curates incidents of political violence in Africa and Asia to check that out. Using their data for 1997 to 2015 , I created the heatmap below. Behind it are reports on 4612 events of political violence: battles between warring parties and unreturned violence on civilians.  That is; one armed conflict incident for every 36 hours of the period. I suppose the bloodbath picture in northern Uganda isn't suprising, because there was a war there, but look at the rest of the country!



Right after I pulled that data, I saw a TV clip in which Museveni was boasting to a crowd that because of NRM, Uganda is peaceful for the first time in 500 years. Really?! How did we survive extinction in the 500 years prior to NRM?  4612 incidences of political violence in the most recent 18 years of the NRM epoch and that is what peace looks like? What did the opposite of peace look like? 

Then again, maybe the army has just been proactively defending us from the bad guys. Of course it has been. 40% of the time. In many (but a minority of those reported incidents), the defenders of our freedoms were totally doing battle (or getting set to) for us.  

Reported Incidents of Armed Violence Events in Uganda (1997 - 2015)
Type of Incident
Number 
Percentage 
Battle-Government regains territory
41
1%
Battle-No change of territory
1683
36%
Battle-Non-state actor overtakes territory
12
0.3%
Headquarters or base established
41
1%
Remote violence
66
1%
Riots/Protests
673
15%
Violence against civilians
1705
37%
Total 4611


However, while the defenders of our freedoms were away somewhere, more than 80 different groups of armed bandits and the Uganda Police (for I dare not call them bandits ) were having their day shooting at civilians. Of course,  the LRA ranks highest, followed by the ADF and Karimojong militia. The Uganda Police holds fourth place. Hey, even the UPDF got in on the action against civillians -- in 22 of the reported incidents, taking fifth place. After those five, the arena of armed men against civilians splits into a riot of actors. See all them below. Bokora Ethnic militia? Banyole Ethnic militia? Ikuruk? Really? Is my household the only grouping of Ugandans left out of the action?

Mr Museveni, considering the national picture, I suggest we now start to measure peace in per capita units. That will keep us on message.


0Abacwamba Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 1Abacwamba Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Acholi Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 3Acholi Ethnic Militia (Uganda)ADF-NALU: Allied Democratic Forces-National Army for the Liberation of Uganda 173ADF-NALU: Allied Democratic Forces-National Army for the Liberation of UgandaAl Shabaab 1Al ShabaabAlur Ethnic Militia (Democratic Republic of Congo) 2Alur Ethnic Militia (Democratic Republic of Congo)Alur Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 3Alur Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Amuka Boys/Rhino Militia 1Amuka Boys/Rhino MilitiaAmuru Communal Militia (Uganda) 1Amuru Communal Militia (Uganda)Amuru Communal Militia (Uganda)Ê 1Amuru Communal Militia (Uganda)ÊArrow Boys Militia (Uganda) 12Arrow Boys Militia (Uganda)Atekodyek Owidi Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 1Atekodyek Owidi Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Ayok Clan Dinka Ethnic Militia (Sudan) 1Ayok Clan Dinka Ethnic Militia (Sudan)Bafumbira Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 1Bafumbira Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Bagisu Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 1Bagisu Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Bagungu Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 3Bagungu Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Bagwere Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 3Bagwere Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Bahima Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 2Bahima Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Bakiga Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 6Bakiga Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Bakonzo Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 2Bakonzo Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Balalo Communal Militia (Uganda) 2Balalo Communal Militia (Uganda)Banyarwanda Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 2Banyarwanda Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Banyole Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 6Banyole Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Banyoro Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 6Banyoro Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Basongora Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 3Basongora Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Batwa Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 1Batwa Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Bokora Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 14Bokora Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Bunyoro Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 1Bunyoro Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Chua Clan Militia (Uganda) 2Chua Clan Militia (Uganda)Dinka Ngok Ethnic Militia (Sudan) 1Dinka Ngok Ethnic Militia (Sudan)Dodoth Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 4Dodoth Ethnic Militia (Uganda)FAPC: People's Armed Forces of Congo 1FAPC: People's Armed Forces of CongoFDC: Forum for Democratic Change 1FDC: Forum for Democratic ChangeFDLR: Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda 0FDLR: Democratic Forces for the Liberation of RwandaFLC: Congolese Liberation Front 0FLC: Congolese Liberation FrontGovernment of Uganda (1986-) 1Government of Uganda (1986-)Hutu Ethnic Militia (Rwanda) 4Hutu Ethnic Militia (Rwanda)Hutu Rebels 1Hutu RebelsIkuruk Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 1Ikuruk Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Interahamwe Militia 18Interahamwe MilitiaIPC: Inter-Party Cooperation 0IPC: Inter-Party CooperationJie Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 26Jie Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Karamajong Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 205Karamajong Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Kibiniko Communal Militia (Uganda) 1Kibiniko Communal Militia (Uganda)Kuku Ethnic Militia (South Sudan) 1Kuku Ethnic Militia (South Sudan)Lendu Ethnic Militia (Democratic Republic of Congo) 3Lendu Ethnic Militia (Democratic Republic of Congo)Local Defence Unit (Uganda) 14Local Defence Unit (Uganda)Loyangalani Area Militia (Uganda) 1Loyangalani Area Militia (Uganda)LRA: Lord's Resistance Army 820LRA: Lord's Resistance ArmyM23: March 23 Movement 4M23: March 23 MovementMatheniko Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 7Matheniko Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Military Forces of Democratic Republic of Congo (1997-2001) 2Military Forces of Democratic Republic of Congo (1997-2001)Military Forces of Democratic Republic of Congo (2001-) 13Military Forces of Democratic Republic of Congo (2001-)Military Forces of Kenya (2002-2013) 6Military Forces of Kenya (2002-2013)Military Forces of South Sudan (2005-) 8Military Forces of South Sudan (2005-)Military Forces of Sudan (1989-) 11Military Forces of Sudan (1989-)Military Forces of Uganda (1986-) 1,624Military Forces of Uganda (1986-)Military Forces of Uganda (1986-) Anti-Stock Theft Unit 1Military Forces of Uganda (1986-) Anti-Stock Theft UnitMilitary Forces of Uganda (1986-) Presidential Security Unit 3Military Forces of Uganda (1986-) Presidential Security UnitMONUC: United Nations Organization Mission in Democratic Republic of Congo (1999-2010) 1MONUC: United Nations Organization Mission in Democratic Republic of Congo (1999-2010)Mujuuza Communal Militia (Uganda) 1Mujuuza Communal Militia (Uganda)Muslim Militia (Uganda) 2Muslim Militia (Uganda)Mutiny of Military Forces of Uganda (1986-) 3Mutiny of Military Forces of Uganda (1986-)Mutiny of Police Forces of Uganda (1986-) 2Mutiny of Police Forces of Uganda (1986-)NALU: National Army for the Liberation of Uganda 5NALU: National Army for the Liberation of UgandaNFA: National Federal Army 1NFA: National Federal ArmyNRM: National Resistance Movement 10NRM: National Resistance MovementPajuru Communal Militia (Uganda) 5Pajuru Communal Militia (Uganda)Pakelle Communal Militia (Uganda) 1Pakelle Communal Militia (Uganda)Pawaja Clan Militia (Uganda) 1Pawaja Clan Militia (Uganda)Pian Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 5Pian Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Pokot Ethnic Militia (Kenya) 19Pokot Ethnic Militia (Kenya)Pokot Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 4Pokot Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Police Forces of South Sudan (2011-) 1Police Forces of South Sudan (2011-)Police Forces of Tanzania (2005-) 1Police Forces of Tanzania (2005-)Police Forces of Uganda (1986-) 451Police Forces of Uganda (1986-)Police Forces of Uganda (1986-) Internal Security Organisation 2Police Forces of Uganda (1986-) Internal Security OrganisationPrivate Security Forces (Uganda) 1Private Security Forces (Uganda)Protesters (Uganda) 2Protesters (Uganda)Rioters (Uganda) 58Rioters (Uganda)RRU: Rapid Response Unit 6RRU: Rapid Response UnitSabinys Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 1Sabinys Ethnic Militia (Uganda)SLDF: Sabaot Land Defence Force 12SLDF: Sabaot Land Defence ForceSLM/A: Sudan Liberation Movement/Army 2SLM/A: Sudan Liberation Movement/ArmySPLA/M-In Opposition: Sudanese People's Liberation Army/Movement-In Opposition 1SPLA/M-In Opposition: Sudanese People's Liberation Army/Movement-In OppositionSPLA/M: Sudanese People's Liberation Army/Movement 5SPLA/M: Sudanese People's Liberation Army/MovementTepeth Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 3Tepeth Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Turkana Ethnic Militia (Kenya) 15Turkana Ethnic Militia (Kenya)UNDF: Uganda National Democratic Force 1UNDF: Uganda National Democratic ForceUnidentified Armed Group (Democratic Republic of Congo) 6Unidentified Armed Group (Democratic Republic of Congo)Unidentified Armed Group (Kenya) 2Unidentified Armed Group (Kenya)Unidentified Armed Group (Pakistan) 1Unidentified Armed Group (Pakistan)Unidentified Armed Group (Rwanda) 2Unidentified Armed Group (Rwanda)Unidentified Armed Group (South Sudan) 2Unidentified Armed Group (South Sudan)Unidentified Armed Group (Sudan) 1Unidentified Armed Group (Sudan)Unidentified Armed Group (Uganda) 146Unidentified Armed Group (Uganda)Unidentified Communal Militia (Uganda) 3Unidentified Communal Militia (Uganda)Unidentified Ethnic Militia (Kenya) 5Unidentified Ethnic Militia (Kenya)Unidentified Ethnic Militia (Sudan) 1Unidentified Ethnic Militia (Sudan)Unidentified Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 2Unidentified Ethnic Militia (Uganda)UNRF II: Uganda National Rescue Front II 5UNRF II: Uganda National Rescue Front IIUPC: Uganda People's Congress 1UPC: Uganda People's CongressUPC: Union of Congolese Patriots 5UPC: Union of Congolese PatriotsUSF: Uganda Salvation Front 1USF: Uganda Salvation FrontVigilante Militia (Uganda) 18Vigilante Militia (Uganda)VOMYO: Voice of Movement Youth 1VOMYO: Voice of Movement YouthWNBF: West Nile Bank Front 9WNBF: West Nile Bank Front 0Abaihango Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 1Abaihango Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Acholi Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 2Acholi Ethnic Militia (Uganda)ADF-NALU: Allied Democratic Forces-National Army for the Liberation of Uganda 266ADF-NALU: Allied Democratic Forces-National Army for the Liberation of UgandaAl Shabaab 3Al ShabaabAlur Ethnic Militia (Democratic Republic of Congo) 1Alur Ethnic Militia (Democratic Republic of Congo)Alur Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 1Alur Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Arak Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 1Arak Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Arrow Boys Militia 2Arrow Boys MilitiaBagisu Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 2Bagisu Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Bagungu Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 2Bagungu Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Bakiga Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 2Bakiga Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Bakonzo Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 6Bakonzo Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Balalo Communal Militia (Uganda) 5Balalo Communal Militia (Uganda)Banyarwanda Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 1Banyarwanda Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Banyole Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 1Banyole Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Banyoro Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 5Banyoro Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Basongora Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 1Basongora Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Batooro Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 1Batooro Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Bokora Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 8Bokora Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Bor Clan Dinka Ethnic Militia (Sudan) 1Bor Clan Dinka Ethnic Militia (Sudan)Bor Clan Dinka Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 1Bor Clan Dinka Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Busoga Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 1Busoga Ethnic Militia (Uganda)CAMP: Citizen's Army for Multiparty Politics 2CAMP: Citizen's Army for Multiparty PoliticsCivilians (Democratic Republic of Congo) 5Civilians (Democratic Republic of Congo)Civilians (International) 12Civilians (International)Civilians (Kenya) 26Civilians (Kenya)Civilians (Rwanda) 7Civilians (Rwanda)Civilians (Somalia) 1Civilians (Somalia)Civilians (South Sudan) 2Civilians (South Sudan)Civilians (Sudan) 40Civilians (Sudan)Civilians (Uganda) 1,679Civilians (Uganda)CNDP: National Congress for the Defence of the People 1CNDP: National Congress for the Defence of the PeopleDinka Ethnic Militia (Sudan) 1Dinka Ethnic Militia (Sudan)Dodoth Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 8Dodoth Ethnic Militia (Uganda)FDC: Forum for Democratic Change 6FDC: Forum for Democratic ChangeGovernment of Democratic Republic of Congo (2001-) 3Government of Democratic Republic of Congo (2001-)Government of Sudan (1989-) 1Government of Sudan (1989-)Government of Uganda (1986-) 1Government of Uganda (1986-)Interahamwe Militia 11Interahamwe MilitiaJie Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 33Jie Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Jopadhola Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 4Jopadhola Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Kaluungu Herders' Militia (Uganda) 1Kaluungu Herders' Militia (Uganda)Karamajong Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 109Karamajong Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Kuura Area Militia (Uganda) 1Kuura Area Militia (Uganda)Local Defence Unit (Uganda) 8Local Defence Unit (Uganda)LRA: Lord's Resistance Army 1,100LRA: Lord's Resistance ArmyLutuko Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 4Lutuko Ethnic Militia (Uganda)M23: March 23 Movement 3M23: March 23 MovementMatheniko Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 16Matheniko Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Military Forces of Democratic Republic of Congo (2001-) 7Military Forces of Democratic Republic of Congo (2001-)Military Forces of South Sudan (2011-) 2Military Forces of South Sudan (2011-)Military Forces of Sudan (1989-) 2Military Forces of Sudan (1989-)Military Forces of Uganda (1986-) 11Military Forces of Uganda (1986-)Mutiny of Military Forces of Democratic Republic of Congo (2001-) 2Mutiny of Military Forces of Democratic Republic of Congo (2001-)Mutiny of Military Forces of Democratic Republic of Congo (2001-) (Nkunda Faction) 1Mutiny of Military Forces of Democratic Republic of Congo (2001-) (Nkunda Faction)Mutiny of Military Forces of Uganda (1986-) 2Mutiny of Military Forces of Uganda (1986-)Mutiny of Police Forces of Uganda (1986-) 1Mutiny of Police Forces of Uganda (1986-)NDA: National Democratic Alliance 1NDA: National Democratic AllianceNRM: National Resistance Movement 3NRM: National Resistance MovementOkol Clan Militia (Uganda) 2Okol Clan Militia (Uganda)Pian Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 5Pian Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Pirates (Tanzania) 1Pirates (Tanzania)Pobira Clan Militia (Uganda) 1Pobira Clan Militia (Uganda)Pokot Ethnic Militia (Kenya) 23Pokot Ethnic Militia (Kenya)Pokot Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 5Pokot Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Police Forces of Kenya (2002-2013) 1Police Forces of Kenya (2002-2013)Police Forces of Uganda (1986-) 2Police Forces of Uganda (1986-)PRA: People's Redemption Army 3PRA: People's Redemption ArmyPrivate Security Forces (Uganda) 3Private Security Forces (Uganda)Protesters (International) 1Protesters (International)Protesters (Uganda) 108Protesters (Uganda)PUSIC: Party for the Unity and Safekeeping of Congo's Integrity 2PUSIC: Party for the Unity and Safekeeping of Congo's IntegrityRCD-K-ML: Rally for Congolese Democracy-Kisangani-Liberation Movement 2RCD-K-ML: Rally for Congolese Democracy-Kisangani-Liberation MovementRFLU: Revolutionary Forces for the Liberation of Uganda 2RFLU: Revolutionary Forces for the Liberation of UgandaRioters (International) 2Rioters (International)Rioters (South Sudan) 1Rioters (South Sudan)Rioters (Uganda) 199Rioters (Uganda)SLDF: Sabaot Land Defence Force 2SLDF: Sabaot Land Defence ForceSPLA/M: Sudanese People's Liberation Army/Movement 2SPLA/M: Sudanese People's Liberation Army/MovementSudanese Ethnic Militia (Sudan) 1Sudanese Ethnic Militia (Sudan)Tepeth Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 6Tepeth Ethnic Militia (Uganda)Turkana Ethnic Militia (Kenya) 3Turkana Ethnic Militia (Kenya)UFDF: Uganda Federal Democratic Front 1UFDF: Uganda Federal Democratic FrontUganda Freedom Movement 1Uganda Freedom MovementUnidentified Armed Group (Democratic Republic of Congo) 5Unidentified Armed Group (Democratic Republic of Congo)Unidentified Armed Group (Pakistan) 1Unidentified Armed Group (Pakistan)Unidentified Armed Group (Rwanda) 3Unidentified Armed Group (Rwanda)Unidentified Armed Group (Sudan) 1Unidentified Armed Group (Sudan)Unidentified Armed Group (Uganda) 39Unidentified Armed Group (Uganda)Unidentified Communal Militia (Uganda) 2Unidentified Communal Militia (Uganda)Unidentified Ethnic Militia (Uganda) 1Unidentified Ethnic Militia (Uganda)UNRF II: Uganda National Rescue Front II 1UNRF II: Uganda National Rescue Front IIUPC: Union of Congolese Patriots 2UPC: Union of Congolese PatriotsUSF: Uganda Salvation Front 1USF: Uganda Salvation FrontUWA: Ugandan Wildlife Authority 1UWA: Ugandan Wildlife AuthorityVigilante Militia (Uganda) 2Vigilante Militia (Uganda)WNBF: West Nile Bank Front 1WNBF: West Nile Bank Front

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